The writer J.L. Borges compared the different stances taken by the Portuguese and the Spanish after having lost their respective empires. While the former sought comfort in nostalgia, lamenting their loss, according to Borger the latter have continued acting as if they still had an empire. This situation of imperialists without an empire and of authoritarian and arrogant attitudes can still be seen in most Spanish institutions, political parties and media. In fact, these three players live in a world with a very different mindset to that of most Catalan citizens. National differences can be seen in both the language that is used and the different interpretation and classification of liberal and democratic values.
The path of compromise has been tried several times in the last one hundred years. The results —always disappointing— are clear to see. For most Catalans, staying in Spain means weakening and diminishing their identity, unable to project their own personality to the world. It means jeopardizing the quality of the political, social, economic, national and cultural life of the next generations. In other plurinational states this agreement has been possible, but in our case nothing suggests that it is feasible. Spain's political culture prevents it. The Spanish state is and will continue to be hostile to the wishes of most Catalans. Frankly, even though there are institutional solutions in comparative politics, in Spain's case I can't see a way of reaching any stable agreement (with a guaranteed outcome) that will resolve the underlying problem. The offers —when they come— will be poor, outdated and extremely insufficient. Spain is a country with a "twisted" rule of law: it forces Catalans to stay, against the will of the majority. Disgraceful.
Having reached this point, there are three key future words to ensure collective success: mobilization, internationalization and leadership. I think it is still vital to maintain the following six conditions:
1) Continue building internally a strong social majority in favour of a democratic decision and of a modern separatist project.
2) Develop clear and intense action abroad, lead by the Catalan government.
3) Establish the unity of the political parties that are in favour of the current political process, avoiding any important divisions. Splits must be averted in all the decisive issues for the country. This is a key aspect for the success of the process.
4) Continue implementing coherent objectives and strategies between the institutions and the grassroots organizations.
5) Offer an inclusive separatist project aimed at all citizens, regardless of the language they speak, the social class they belong to, their religion, etc. The project for independence must be all-inclusive: any citizen should be able to feel at ease there.
6) Reinforce a prestigious political leadership, identifiable anywhere in the globalized world.
At the moment, the function of leadership in institutions and parties is decisive. Catalans have given more than enough proof that they are up to the challenge. Now it is the political parties who must prove that they can rise to it, too. Everything points to the fact that Catalonia must proceed towards a "disconnection", as calm as possible, from legality and from Spanish institutions. (Eric Clapton, "Unplugged").
The parties and institutions that support the process are faced with the biggest leadership challenge of the last few decades. They will have to decide the right moment for this disconnection —not an easy issue— and which are the necessary decisions to get there. They have to offer citizens clear objectives and successful strategies that are agreed on and feasible. Commitments must be renewed. Citizens' vote and the disconnection can come about from at least three different scenarios:
a) The 9-N referendum. For it to be effective for the disconnection, it would have to be done with all the legal and procedural guarantees that would make its result legitimate. Without these guarantees the result would be relevant, but also easily delegitimized (logistical difficulties when implementing it, insufficient turnout, international skepticism). The costs and benefits must be properly calculated. A radical move from the political parties could be an indicator of strategic naivety. Actions of civil disobedience would be a clear sign of the public's determination, but it would be unlikely to draw support from governments of other democracies and from the EU. If in the end the 9-N referendum isn't held, besides possible mobilizations, there are two alternative scenarios:
b) Plebiscitary elections in Parliament. In this case, something must have been analyzed properly: the convenience of establishing whether it is better for at least CiU, ERC, ex-PSC, independents, etc. to run as a single candidature or separate ones. First we would have the legitimacy of citizens' vote in favour of independence; the institutional disconnection would follow. It would require a constant social mobilization, an intense international campaign that proved the impossibility of resolving the situation the British way and decisions that would also have an international impact. In this scenario it would be useful for the government to have as broad a political base as possible, as well as a parliamentary majority supporting it. Obviously, we have to be adequately prepared to implement this scenario with guarantees that it will be internally and internationally successful. It would be a decisive step. We would have to proclaim independence when it were realistically possible to uphold and develop it. We would need state institutions that could guarantee that the Generalitat would be the only political power that was effective and enduring in Catalonia. When a new power prevails, said Raymond Aron —a thinker and politician that cannot be suspected of radicalism— it will be recognised; international law always ends up submitting itself to reality.
c) Disconnection and referendum. Finally, citizens could vote via a referendum after the political disconnection by Catalan institutions has taken place. It is a riskier scenario, as it couldn't rely on a previous electoral legitimacy. However, it is another possible scenario and it mustn't be ruled out.
Political leaders must act with upmost professionalism and unity. If it failed because of division or haste, then it wouldn't matter who had previously had the best reasons: all parties would be "characterised" as incompetent professionals, less than mediocre, who had mismanaged the potential of a political process towards the restoration of dignity and of the country's collective freedom, supported by most of its citizens. Ladies and gentlemen of the political parties, avoid becoming the weak link in the process! Pull out all the stops, think of the politics of the country and not of ideology, mere morality or personal interests. Put aside your mistrust of each other. The world will carry on watching us closely in the coming months. It must be done well. It can be done well, even very well; but we must avoid glaring errors that could be decisive. Our nation has enough social, economic, intellectual and organizational resources to come out stronger from the current situation. Internationalization will become key at a certain moment, but what will be most decisive is what is decided within the country. It is time for a more constant mobilization. It is time for clear internationalization. Most of all, it is time for leadership. A leadership of high standing. With statesmanship.
