Since November 9th, I have deliberately tried to write about Catalonia’s independence process without adding fuel to the fire. However, while prudence might not make a traitor of me, it could perhaps get in the way of the truth. Therefore, I would like to outline the huge difficulties that I think we will face in the coming months. There can be no doubt that these hurdles will be greater that anything we have seen so far and we will not be able to overcome them with festive demonstrations, no matter how massive and spectacular they are.
Here is my first thought. When an agreement is lauded and applauded largely because it has finally come, rather than for its actual content, it is obvious that the whole thing is very fragile. I mean that the quality of the gesture and its gestation are more reminiscent of a ceasefire than of a peace treaty. It is unclear whether this ceasefire will be used to prepare peace or to plan the next battle. In order to anticipate what might happen, it would be useful to know the reasons behind the quarrel between Oriol Junqueras-ERC and president Artur Mas-CDC. Some have suggested a loss of mutual trust as the main issue. At any rate, rather than a cause, this would seem to be more the result of several conditions that go beyond a mere personality clash.
In my opinion, the underlying obstacles are as follows. One: given that it is unthinkable for Spain to undergo a reform process, it is difficult to agree on how and when Catalonia should break away within the current democratic order. The Spanish Transition (a reform that failed to wipe the slate clean) was made possible because it was the state itself that chose to reform. By contrast, Catalan independence will happen against the will of Spain. Two: it is difficult to get out of the Catch-22 of urging the pro-independence parties to remain united for now when their goal is to set up the future battlefield --the new Catalan Republic-- where they will have to compete against each other once their common foreign adversary is out of the picture. This would explain why Junqueras needs to repeat, day in and day out, his mantra of wanting a “clear, fair” country (wouldn’t you?) in an attempt to exorcise the agreement that he begrudgingly signed with Mas. Three: even if the whole process ends well, this is a bridge that must be crossed by political parties and leaders who know that there is no life for them on the other side. It is quite something that Artur Mas has already chosen to put an end to his political career when that time comes and that Junqueras has announced that he will quit if there isn’t a pro-independence majority on September 27th. But we know very little about the parties ...
A second thought. In politics --as in most human endeavours-- the clearer the ideas, the more impractical they are. Actually, the more practical an idea is, the more complex it becomes; even confusing. Therefore, the clearest ideas within the pro-independence camp are presently the least applicable ones from a factual point of view, even if they are the most convincing from a logical standpoint. Paradoxically, it is for this very reason that the paths that lead us closer to independence are precisely the ones that people distrust the most. We tend to trust the impossible or unlikely ways more than the plausible ones. That is why it is easier to trust the CUP’s radical formulations and ERC’s heated discourse than CDC’s pragmatic separatism.
One last thought. It is Madrid that will likely undo the vicious circle of wanting to break up with Spain without shattering anything, which lies at the heart of pro-independence Catalan society. I mean that, while we are trying to prepare the formal scenarios for a shatter-proof breakup, Madrid --like in Picasso’s Guernica-- will charge like a raging bull in a china shop. Just then we will need to show that we have the same determination that we now demand from our leaders.
