The dangerous trend towards the return of the two Spains
The same leaders who don't know how to negotiate among themselves to form a government also don't know how to reach an agreement with Catalonia
Spain remains politically deadlocked. There is no government in sight. Everything indicates that we will have to wait until autumn: in the best of cases, to swear in a president; in the worst, to have a third round of elections and, consequently, a fair share of ridicule. The ability to reach a negotiated agreement has yet to find its place in Spain’s political culture, marked by too many years of a two-party system of black or white. And a Spain of four colors isn't looking good. Indeed, this is so much so that the latest CIS survey, made public yesterday and carried out between July 1-11 (that is, just a few weeks after the June 26 elections that should have served as a way out of the impasse resulting from 20-D), indicates a slight trend towards a return to bipartisanship. It's as if the Spanish people had resigned themselves to thinking: “if professional politicians can’t manage a diversity of parties, we might as well go back to to black and white, let’s return to the eternal two Spains, to a country of good and bad, winners and losers, all or nothing”. Everything very much in the style of Rajoy. Yes, simplicity is easier: it's just a shame that it's even farther from the complexity of real life. It's a shame that it's moving away from democratic maturity.
It is this same lack of democratic maturity and connection with a plural reality that prevents them from facing the Catalan question. The same leaders who don't know how to negotiate among themselves to form a government also don't know how to reach an agreement with a Catalonia that wants to decide its own future. The two things are closely connected: the Catalan challenge is, to a great extent, what is preventing them from reaching an agreement. In any case, while it may seem so to some, the trend towards a return to a -- more or less-- bipartisan state shown in the CIS survey will not resolve anything. First, because a perfect return would be difficult to achieve. And second, because the Catalan (and Basque) political map will continue to be an oddity: indeed, the more bipartisanship in Spain, the greater the distance from Catalonia. To seek simplistic solutions to complex problems is usually counterproductive. It would be better, then, if the Spanish political forces assumed their collective responsibility to form a government --that is, to negotiate an agreement-- and to accept plurinationality for once and for all --that is, to face reality—. An acceptance that can now only lead to a referendum.
