A bitter term with a weak government and an ensnared PSOE

The day-long investiture debate, the prelude to Mariano Rajoy’s election, provided plenty of clues as to what to expect from this term. The first thing that became apparent is that the PP will face many difficulties in transforming itself into the conciliatory party, one open to dialogue, that Rajoy promised on Wednesday. At least as long as individuals such as Rafael Hernando serve as the party’s spokesperson.

The second clue is the ordeal that awaits the PSOE, who yesterday found themselves completely side-lined in the debate. While it is clear that the socialists are buying time to rebuild themselves as a party capable of governing, their abstention-without-conditions has left them in a position of extreme weakness when facing the PP-C's combined front. Without doubt, it is the worst scenario for the socialists, who could have attempted to obtain something in return for their abstention.

Instead they are caught without a leader and between a rock and a hard place in the form of Rajoy and Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias. Both emerged as having won the debate since they achieved their objectives: the former will be president and the latter will lead the opposition. Rajoy feels at ease in the corridors of power and knows better than anyone the art of applying pressure on his opponents to make them back down, while Iglesias knows how to make use of agitation and fiery rhetoric against the 1978 regime to gain ground against a weakened PSOE. In other words, it looks like it will be a difficult, bitter term with few agreements and in which Catalonia is emerging as the glue binding the virtual tripartite agreement that will see Rajoy occupying the Moncloa palace.

If one thing became clear, it is that a large majority in Congress is ready to shut the door on the Catalan aspirations. Rajoy, with the enthusiastic cooperation of Ciudadanos and the PSOE, is prepared to continue with his refusal to budge, with his only reply to the Catalan independence process being the courts. In this respect, both Joan Tardà and Francesc Homs were crystal clear: the pro-independence majority in the Catalan Parliament will continue on their path to holding a referendum and will not abide by the Constitutional Court’s decisions.

The promise to improve the system of regional funding outlined by Rajoy last Wednesday, sounded like some sort of a joke in the middle of 2016, some four years after the start of the Catalan independence process. It is one more example of Rajoy’s short-sightedness, as he prepares to govern with the acquiescence of a disoriented PSOE.