PSC to win slightly ahead of ERC if February elections take place, poll says

BarcelonaAccording to the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), the "Illa effect" the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has been talking up since it appointed Spanish Minister of Health Salvador Illa as their candidate in the Catalan elections is showing. In the pre-election poll made public this Thursday, and foreseeing that the elections would be held on February 14th, the Socialists are ahead with a result that would vary between 30 and 35 seats, very close to ERC, which would aspire to obtain between 31 and 33. JxCat would be the third force in Parliament, although its results could vary widely, between 20 to 27 seats. Next would come Ciudadanos (13-15), En Comú-Podem (9-12), CUP (8-11), Vox (6-10) and the PP (7). The PDECat would be left out of Parliament.

The victory of the Socialists would be in terms of both seats and votes. They are already the favourites when respondants are asked spontaneously (i.e. before pollsters "cook up" the results with other data) and the estimate made by the CIS is that they could reach 23.9% of the votes. ERC would come second with 20.6% and JxCat would follow with 12.5%. The PSC would win in Barcelona and Tarragona and Esquerra would win in Girona and Lleida.

Current coalition partners Esquerra and Junts would have 51 to 60 seats between them (currently they have 66), and it seems unlikely that pro-independence parties will maintain the 70 seats won in 2017. Despite CUP's improved results, the poll believes the three pro-independence parties would have between 59 and 71 representatives between them. The poll also predicts that pro-independence parties would fall far short of a 50% share of the vote and barely reach 40% (including the PDECat). This poll is very different to others published lately, even to that carried out by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió, which believes pro-independence parties may get over 50% of the votes.

The CIS, presided over by the controversial José Félix Tezanos, also points out that Salvador Illa is the most highly rated candidate of all those running in the elections. The minister is also the only one who passes (5/10) and relegates the head of the ERC list, Pere Aragonès, and that of JxCat, Laura Borràs, to joint second (4.6/10). Further behind are Dolors Sabater (CUP), with 4/10; Jéssica Albiach (En Comú Podem), with 3.8/10; Àngels Chacón (PDECat), with 3.7/10; Marta Pascal (PNC), with 3.5/10; Carlos Carrizosa (Ciudadanos), with 2.7; Alejandro Fernández (PP), 2.6; and Ignacio Garriga (Vox) 2.5. Fernández, Garriga, Albiach and Sabater have an additional problem: only around half the population knows who they are.

PP protests

Although Illa's nomination as a socialist candidate was only made public on December 30, the CIS was already asking about him before. The PP suspects that the minister was included in the November barometer because it had already been decided that he would head the PSC list -Miquel Iceta publicly acknowledged that the decision was taken in mid-November. That is why the PP has registered a question addressed to the president of the CIS, José Félix Tezanos, in which they ask him to know "what was the criterion followed for the selection of political leaders" included in the November barometer.

In those questions, the Catalan respondents were consulted both on the degree of knowledge and assessment of the candidates and on their preference for who they wanted as president of the Generalitat, including Illa, although formally he did not even appear as a pre-candidate.