47.7% of Catalans want independence, 42.4% reject it

For the first time in recent years a CEO opinion poll indicates that independence enjoys a majority support in Catalonia, even though unionists had a seven-point lead only one year ago.

Roger Tugas
2 min
L'estelada  va tenir tot el protagonisme en una Diada històrica.

BarcelonaOn Friday Catalonia’s Centre for Opinion Polls —a government polling agency known as CEO in Catalan— unveiled the results of its 2016 survey, which shows a majority support for independence in Catalonia. 47.7 percent of respondents said that they support independence, while 42.4 percent do not. This is the first time that a majority backs Catalan independence since the CEO began polling on this item —that is, without any reference to a hypothetical independence referendum—. A previous survey in March this year showed a technical tie on the same question.

In February 2015 the CEO began polling on the issue of independence, rather than asking about the respondents’ preferences on a hypothetical independence referendum or the non-binding vote of November 9, 2014. Back then, 48 percent opposed independence, while 44.1 percent were in favour. A year ago, the CEO poll painted an even rosier picture for the unionist camp, with a 50 percent support, and only 42.9 percent backing Yes. Since then, the latter have been closing the gap and independence is now the majority’s choice for the first time.

A breakdown by political party shows that 90.4 percent of Junts pel Sí voters (1) want Catalonia to be independent, as do 89.3 percent of CUP supporters. Among voters of Catalunya Sí que es Pot (CSQP), 30.5 percent back independence, while 55 per cent oppose it. On this point, CEO director Jordi Argelaguet remarked that the percentage of CSQP voters who support Catalan independence has risen by ten points since the March poll, which he put down to the results of the Spanish elections on June 26 and the failure of the “new left” to win a majority in Madrid’s parliament that might have promoted a country-wide political change. Voters of all the other parties widely oppose independence.

When approached about a range of options, 41.6 percent of Catalans state that independence is necessary, 20.9 percent demand a Catalan state within a federal Spain, 26.5 percent would prefer Catalonia to keep its current status quo and 4 per cent would rather it were a region without devolved powers. CSQP voters mostly support a federal model (42.6 percent), whereas PSC supporters mostly favour the current system of devolved regional powers (44.4 percent) over a federal model (40.5 percent).

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(1) N.T. Junts pel Sí is the governing, pro-independence, multi-party coalition in Catalonia.

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