Parliament conditions roadmap on a referendum

When Carles Puigdemont, President of the Generalitat, uttered the phrase “either a referendum or a referendum”, he was actually bringing in a substantial change to the roadmap agreed upon by pro-independence forces before the 27-S elections. Therefore, it makes sense that this roadmap would have to be adapted now to a new scenario where the referendum —rather than a unilateral declaration of independence— is the core idea.

This newspaper has learned that one of the options that appears to be gaining traction is that the law of legal transition that will be approved in the summer would take effect in two different stages. The first would only be for those elements that would allow the Catalan authorities to hold a referendum without permission from the Spanish government. It would involve, in simple terms, a proclamation of a minimum level of sovereignty needed to organize the voting. The rest of the law, which would de facto regulate the conversion of the current Autonomous Community of Catalonia into a full-fledged independent country, would only take effect in case of a Yes win. It would be a two-stage disconnection.

This option, currently being considered by the various political players involved in the process, has the advantage that it would prompt the inevitable clash with the Spanish government over the notion of ballots and the right to self-determination instead of outright independence, which does not have majority support in Catalonia yet and, in particular, is a cause of concern in European chancelleries.

In contrast, the idea of a referendum does enjoy greater international support, as the ministry led by Raül Romeva has been able to show. After all, it would be the same challenge on Spain but merely changing the terms of the debate: why won’t Spain allow a referendum like in the United Kingdom?

The debate has only just begun and a consensus hasn't yet been reached, but in the coming weeks and months we will see how the different players position themselves with respect to this slow but unstoppable change in strategy that began with the vote of confidence for President Puigdemont. The only asset that Catalonia has to win this battle is the mobilization of the people and a broad social consensus, which nowadays is centered around the referendum and the right to decide. And we can't do without either of these two pillars.