Puigdemont ponders moving referendum up if there are disqualifications

In meetings, the President mentions the possibility of advancing the breakaway as result of legal challenges

Gerard Pruna
3 min
Puigdemont es planteja avançar el referèndum si hi ha inhabilitacions

"At the latest, we will hold a referendum in the second half of September next year". This statement from Carles Puigdemont, President of the Generalitat, during the debate on the vote of confidence, meant that Catalan politics marked those fifteen days on the 2017 calendar in red. His sentence, however, included the phrase "at the latest", which opened up the possibility of it happening even sooner. Moving up the date of the referendum is an idea that has often been on the table --pushed at times by both the CUP and ERC-- and that, according to sources close to the president, Puigdemont has proposed in some of the private conversations he has had. This has caused the possibility to gain strength in his immediate circles as judicialization of the process has intensified.

For now, say government sources, the Catalan administration is not working with this scenario, but Puigdemont and Vice-President Oriol Junqueras have talked about it in some of the meetings they have held. They agree, according to sources privy to the discussions, on the fact that it will be necessary to reconsider the timing of the roadmap if Madrid accelerates the legal challenges and multiplies the parade of pro-independence office-holders appearing before the courts of law.

An official close to Puigdemont has also predicted that "this will happen before September" as, he reasons, the independence movement cannot stand idly by if the courts begin to disqualify officials. Various sources see the legal ruling against Carme Forcadell, the Speaker of the Catalan Parliament, as the turning point that could precipitate everything. ERC and the CUP already proposed in December that the possible disqualification of Forcadell should accelerate the break with Spain. At the time, the leadership of the Democratic Party (PDECat) asked them not to raise "doubts" about the calendar, but now the idea of moving up the consultation is also gaining support within the former Convergència.

"The situation is becoming unbearable", said a representative of PDECat who is concerned with the number of legal briefs piling up on the tables of the government and members of the Parliament's Executive Committee. This leader also points to another argument that favors moving up the date of the referendum: that the Catalan administration "would like to play with the factor of surprise" to catch the Spanish government off-guard.

A complicated calendar

Advancing the referendum, however, would also bring with it some complications. Government sources point out that, as July and August are practically ineligible for a referendum, doing so before September implies, therefore, that it be held in June. This would compact the calendar in a way which, according to the same sources, is not so simple to put into practice as, even though some of the preparatory work related to the vote has already been completed, there are also some logistical aspects --such as the ballot boxes themselves-- that take time and must be taken into account. "There is work that has been done, but this is an ongoing process", noted another voice in the Palau de la Generalitat (Government House).

For now, the work continues as at the beginning, with sights set on the second fortnight of September. There is the possibility on the table, however, according to a leader we spoke with, that faced with the clash of legitimacies that would arise from Spain suspending ex-President Artur Mas or especially the President of Parliament, the independence movement could respond by stepping on the gas pedal: rushing approval of the law for legal transitoriness --which certifies the breakaway and Junts pel Sí and the CUP have already drafted and readied-- and calling the referendum less than 48 hours later. "Those 48 hours are key”, emphasised the same leader, who remarked that "we would only have to disobey for one day", and noted that the government and pro-independence parties will need the support of a mobilized civil society: "It will not be enough to put on a tee-shirt and go to the September 11th demonstration".

Spain's reaction

This scenario is not devoid of complications, and among the main worries of the Catalan government is the fact that Madrid could decide to take over the Mossos d'Esquadra —the Catalan Police Force— via the National Security law. The fact that the Constitutional Court upheld this law only a month ago --a law which requires the Generalitat to put its resources under the authority of the Spanish government in situations concerning national security-- is a worry for the Catalan government, which sees it as a way for the Madrid --interpreting the referendum as a risk to national security-- to try to take control of the Catalan police at the moment of disconnection. Preparing itself to respond to this challenge is one of the government's tasks as it faces a referendum that Spain's judicial offensive could end up bringing forward.

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