CIS barometer: Vox grows after vote of no confidence, and PSOE, UP and PP lose votes

Cs also increases but does not reach the 10% voting intention estimate

The vote of no confidence has given Vox some momentum. According to the November CIS barometer, elaborated the beginning of the month, the far-right wing party is the only statewide force besides Ciudadanos that is increasing in vote intention. PSOE, Unidas Podemos, and PP, on the other hand, have decreased, while in the previous barometer (drafted in October) the political party of Pablo Casado grew in vote intention.

The coalition government continues to suffer from the management of the pandemic after the debate on the state of emergency extension. The Socialists lose four tenths of a percent, moving from 30.8% to 30.4%, while Unidas Podemos loses three and stands at an estimated 11.4% of the vote. The PP also falls slightly from 18.9% to 18.6%. The big push, however, is for the party of Santiago Abascal, which raises from 12.5% to 13.2%. Vox is in a voting intention position similar to where it was in spring, in the midst of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

This is the third consecutive month where an improvement in results for Vox can be seen. Last month they already outperformed Unidas Podemos and recovered their spot as the third force in Congress after the Spanish elections of November 10th. 

A small improvement has also been seen for Ciudadanos, now that Inés Arrimadas has offered to negotiate the general State budgets with Sanchez. However, this rebound comes after a sharp decrease in the last barometer, and they still cannot reach the 10% voting intention estimate barrier - they currently stand at 9.5%.

As for the Catalan parties, ERC loses a tenth of a percentage point, and is currently at 3.2%. The same applies for Junts per Catalunya, who are at 1.7%. The CUP, on the other hand, increases two tenths. This barometer, nevertheless, puts forward a series of questions about the electoral pre-campaign scenario in which it becomes clear that ERC is the political force with more support in Catalonia according to those who were polled, who would prefer that the leader of the imprisoned Republicans, Oriol Junqueras, was the president of Catalonia with a support of 19.1%. He is followed by the ex president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont (JxCat), with a support of 15.2%.

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