German study finds continuation of Catalonia within Spain unlikely

BerlinA German study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES), which is close to the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), considers that the situation created by the Catalan independence debate has reached an irreversible and difficult-to-solve point, due to "the polarization" into "two nationalisms that provoke each other".

According to this study, the two possible resolutions (a negotiated independence like the secession of Czechoslovakia or a constitutional reform that gives Catalonia more autonomy) are improbable due to the radicalization of supporters and opponents of independence.

The report, written by Michael Ehrke with the Madrid office of the Foundation, confirms the increase in support for independence in Catalonia, which has grown from less than 17% five years ago to 52% now.

Standing out among the causes are the economic crisis and the austerity policies imposed by Europe, which were viewed as a loss of Spanish sovereignty and which provoked a loss of credibility in Spain's institutions.

The ruling on the unconstitutionality of part of the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, the report continues, was as a catalyst for the independence movement and added the independence debate to the agenda of the Catalan government.

Ehrke describes the complicated and uncertain road that Catalonia is faced with: if a majority votes for independence in the November referendum, then the Spanish government would declare the result unconstitutional and the supporters of independence would be confronted with the dilemma of a unilateral declaration of independence versus an attempt at a negotiated solution.

According to the study, Catalan president Artur Mas and his party, CiU, will look to avoid a unilateral declaration, above all for reasons of monetary policy and European politics.

EU institutions have made it clear that, should Catalonia declare independence unilaterally, it would have to request admission to the EU in a process that could last several years and would eventually require Spain's approval as well.

Lack of legal guarantees

"A development like this would bring about a great deal of legal insecurity and significant risks for the Catalan economy, including the subsidiaries of international companies", the study warned.

A negotiated independence or a constitutional reform that facilitated the continuation of Catalonia within Spain are theoretically possible but, according to Ehrke, are unlikely "in light of the current political polarization between two nationalisms that provoke each other".

Ehrke believes that CiU could have hope for changes in the near term, a confidence that the referendum on Scottish independence in September would improve the European climate as regards the Catalan movement, and that European partners would begin to pressure the president of the Spanish government, Mariano Rajoy, to negotiate with Catalonia.

Nevertheless, the study expresses doubts that a negotiated solution, with its uncertain denouement, would satisfy the most radical wing of the independence movement.

"The spirit of independence -or of Catalan nationalism- probably will not allow the bottle to be corked again by a less-than-spectacular and difficult negotiation with uncertain results", it concludes.