Pro-independence coalitions Junts pel Sí and the CUP would revalidate their absolute majority (60-63 members for the former, 8-9 for the latter), according to the latest barometer from Catalonia’s Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). Ciudadanos would remain the same or rise slightly (25-26), the PSC would also increase its number of seats (17-19, compared to 16 currently), Comuns would not make the expected leap (12-14; they have 11 now), and the PP would stay the same (10-11 seats).
The CEO survey was taken between October 16th and 29th; that is, in the midst of the suspended declaration of independence, the evolution of the application of Article 155, the declaration of independence on the 27th, and Rajoy´s announcement of snap elections.
Another notable piece of data from this survey is that the number of supporters of independence has risen significantly. To the question "Do you want Catalonia to become an independent country?" 48.7% responded "yes" and 43.6% "no". It is a turnaround from the June barometer: those favorable to independence rose 7 points (from 41.1% to 48.7%) and those against fell almost 6 points (from 49.4% to 43.6%).
To the question as to which model of government Catalans prefer, independence also enjoyed a significant rise: 40.2% of Catalans want to live in an independent country (34.7 in the previous poll). Support for an autonomous state fell (24.7%, vs. 30.5% before), and federalism remained stable at 21.9%. Those in favor of Catalonia being a region totaled 4.6%.
The study was published on Tuesday after, according to the Spanish government, the Catalan administration was suspended. The CEO posted the barometer on its website, but in contrast to its usual practice, did not hold a press conference to announce the results.