Are current restrictions against covid enough, or do we need to go one step further?
Santa Coloma de GramenetWe speak with Daniel López Codina, researcher at UPF Biocom-SC, Carme Borrell, manager of the Barcelona Public Health Agency.
Would an early curfew at 8:00 p.m. be helpful?
López Codina: Any measure to minimize social contacts is useful to bend the infection curve. In Extremadura, for example, strict night-time lockdown would have to be decreed now, but the whole state has a very high incidence. Also in Catalonia, the forecast for improvement is very slow. The measures must be maintained longer, and increased.
Carme Borrell: All the measures that seek to reduce social contacts can help control this epidemic, but the need to deploy them depends very much on the exact point where we are epidemiologically. Right now the indicators are telling us that the curve is bending and therefore we are reaching the peak of the third wave. It's always good to have the tools, but before we put them in place we must confirm whether the curve is being contained by what is already in place.
Should total lockdown be decreed?
López Codina: It would be convenient for us to change the dynamic of the curve. In 15 days, the incidence would drop much faster. But all the economic and social perspectives have to be put in the balance and we know that the administrations will not decree it until the panorama is very rough. There is little margin for action. Can we have a lockdown by neighborhoods as Madrid does? Such surgical measures are complex, but it is also true that municipal lockdown in the most populated areas such as metropolitan areas, with one million inhabitants moving around, is not effective. I believe that there are no harder measures to be taken than to decree a total lockdown.
Carme Borrell: I don't think it's necessary right now, but this doesn't mean that we won't do it at some point. I think that there are autonomous communities that still have room to tighten their restrictions, and in Catalonia we still have the option of closing down restaurants or consumption in bars and restaurants before making a new total lockdown. Before deciding anything, we will have to assess whether what we are doing already works for us. In Catalonia it is worth continuing with the current measures for a few more days, at least a week, if we see that the curve really slows down in the coming days. We have to find a balance between controlling the virus and avoiding further economic repercussions and on people's health: we cannot close down everything.
Spain is one of the European countries with the most lax measures. What does this mean for epidemiological management?
López Codina: That we are late. The harder the measures are, the better results are obtained in less time. In France they have better epidemiological control because their measures are stricter. There is too much hesitation here. I am convinced that a total lockdown is needed, perhaps not homogeneous but strong in the most affected areas. It is a matter of weeks before the British variant is predominant and we must reduce the number of infections before it becomes strong.
Carme Borrell: In the State, not all the autonomous communities do the same thing and this is also reproduced in Europe. The epidemic fluctuates a lot but there are also many territorial inequalities. There are no univocal answers. In Catalonia we have very restrictive measures that are going well without replicating the harshest measures of other countries.
