A hologram or a jailed president?

The absolute majority for pro-independence forces after the December 21st elections will be difficult to put into practice with President Puigdemont in Belgium and Vice-president Junqueras in prison. The two main pro-independence slates are not seeing eye to eye at the moment, yet they have no choice but to pay heed to the results of the election. After the uncertainty of the past three months, there is an outright majority of seats for independence, but without any margin for self-deception. From October 1st to December 21st it became very clear who controls the repressive force of the police and the justice system and who has the strength at the polls. The election results, with two defined blocs, stable and led by the voraciousness of Ciudadanos (Cs), impose a raw reflection on all the players involved.

Puigdemont must decide whether to expose himself to imprisonment and the risk that the scandal this would entail might be absorbed rapidly by international opinion, which would leave his possibilities of taking office in the hands of the arbitrariness of judges and the PP. If he chooses not to do so, Sànchez, Turull, and Artadi would become potential candidates for the presidency. ERC will act depending on Junqueras’ hypothetical release, and internally they will also have to rethink the strategy that led to the declaration of independence in parliament and its consequences.

Both parties, along with the CUP, must set a realistic four-year horizon to put pressure on the PP and Cs. Mariano Rajoy’s problem with an insubordinate Catalonia is not a small one, and the lack of a political project for Spain is clear. A crisis is now brewing among the forces on the Spanish political right.