The crucial battle of the February elections
BarcelonaIf anyone thought that the election on February 14 was going to be just another election, they were very much mistaken. The president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, has agreed to dispense with one of his most valued ministers, Salvador Illa, to replace Miquel Iceta as leader of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC). And on the same day the former spokesperson for Ciudadanos in Catalonia and candidate to preside the Generalitat in a vote of no confidence, Lorena Roldán, announced her move to Alejandro Fernández's People's Party (PP). These movements show how transcendental these elections could be, not only for Catalonia, but for the Spanish political scene.
However, it must be stressed that changing Health Ministers in the midst of the pandemic is not very responsible, since it legitimises the opposition when it accuses Sánchez of not having the management of the health crisis as his number one priority. The fact that the President of the Government was talking to the PSC mid-November, at the height of the second wave, about substituting his Health Minister is not very reassuring. Sánchez's focus on political tactics is once again proven, more in keeping with the polls than with management excellence. Now we will have to see if the cost he will have to assume in remodelling his cabinet in such a critical moment compensates the supposed electoral gains that the PSC will obtain in the elections.
In any case, what this proves is that Sanchez intends to go hard in these elections so that the PSC may win and thus support his political project. In the absence of other elections in the short term, the elections on February 14 will be the best opportunity to corner the three right-wing parties and challenge pro-independence parties. The most worrying thing is that the strategy to achieve it is to reinforce its more Spanish profile in order to regain the Ciudadanos vote in the metropolitan area. Let us hope that Salvador Illa's PSC does not stray from the basic pillars of Catalan identity and is not tempted to question, for example, the Catalan school model, because not everything goes to collect a few votes. News such as the signing of a former leader of Ciudadanos in Tarragona would attest to this danger. Pablo Casado, the leader of the PP, is also aware of what is at stake in Catalonia and has placed a big bet on Lorena Roldán, hoping to collect Ciudadanos votes.
Salvador Illa's candidacy also poses a challenge to the independence movement, which it will have to find a way to overcome. The only way to do this is to build an ambitious and attractive project for a Catalan social majority that goes beyond rhetoric and keeps its feet on the ground, combining the short and the long term. If three years ago Ciudadanos' Inés Arrimadas achieved a surprise win, with the help, of course, of a large part of the state media, it is not inconceivable that the same happens this time round with the PSC. At least now we know that Sánchez will go for it. And this only increases the interest in these crucial elections.
